Markets and Economy
Economic & Market Outlook - Second Quarter 2019
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The extreme volatility experienced in late 2018 and early 2019 serves as a reminder that investing is about staying the course and focusing on long‐term investment goals rather than trying to predict short‐term market moves. As seen in the performance overview below, the bulk of the fourth quarter 2018 equity and commodity market losses were largely recouped in the first quarter of 2019.
Economic growth in the US has generally been in line with our expectations. The pace of growth in 2018 was above‐trend, driven by benefits from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. In 2019, US GDP growth is decelerating to an expected annual growth rate near 2%. Furthermore, we continue to believe there will not be a recession in 2019. If the economic expansion continues for one more quarter, the current expansion will become the longest on record.
Outside the US, economic data has been mixed. Eurozone growth decelerated from an already meager pace and the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit saga drags on. Germany, Europe’s largest economy and the fourth largest in the world, has been weaker than expected. In China, ongoing efforts to stimulate the economy are showing early signs of taking hold. A resolution to the current trade conflict would help the Chinese economy achieve the 6.0%‐6.5% real GDP growth target that policymakers are intent on reaching.
This information is for educational and illustrative purposes only and should not be used or construed as financial advice, an offer to sell, a solicitation, an offer to buy or a recommendation for any security. Opinions expressed herein are as of the date of this report and do not necessarily represent the views of Johnson Financial Group and/or its affiliates. Johnson Financial Group and/or its affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with this report. Johnson Financial Group and/or its affiliates do not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein. Such information is subject to change without notice and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Johnson Financial Group and/or its affiliates do not provide legal or tax advice to clients. You should review your particular circumstances with your independent legal and tax advisors. Whether any planned tax result is realized by you depends on the specific facts of your own situation at the time your taxes are prepared. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All performance data, while deemed obtained from reliable sources, are not guaranteed for accuracy. Not for use as a primary basis of investment decisions. Not to be construed to meet the needs of any particular investor. Asset allocation and diversification do not assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. Certain investments, like real estate, equity investments and fixed income securities, carry a certain degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Johnson Financial Group is the parent company of Johnson Bank, Johnson Wealth Inc. and Johnson Insurance Services LLC. NOT FDIC INSURED * NO BANK GUARANTEE * MAY LOSE VALUE